Predictors of incidence of metabolic syndrome based on the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging
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The study aimed to determine the predictors of incident metabolic syndrome and to investigate whether longitudinal changes in metabolic syndrome components differed by age and gender in those subjects who developed metabolic syndrome compared to those who did not. To this end, 506 men and 461 women participating in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging were followed up over a period of 6 years. They were censored when they developed metabolic syndrome or reported use of antihypertensive or lipid-lowering agents. Overall, 25.5% of men and 14.8% of women developed metabolic syndrome. Higher baseline abdominal obesity or triglycerides and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were predictors of developing metabolic syndrome, their predictive accuracy being slightly improved when adding the rate of changes in metabolic syndrome components over time. Women were more likely than men to have metabolic syndrome without elevated glycaemia, whereas men were more likely than women to have metabolic syndrome without abdominal obesity. These findings suggest that patterns of metabolic syndrome components and longitudinal changes leading to metabolic syndrome appear to be different in men and women.
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